The example of Israel shows how states can get rid of refugees whom they cannot send back to their countries of origin. Israel does this by offering poor African countries expensive training and security technologies almost free of charge. Refugees become the currency of payment.

The EU also offers ‘deportation for training’ deals to its African partners. Country-specific packages and numerous framework agreements on border security propagate this barter trade. Just as Israel offers its African partners training assistance to sell its border security and surveillance technology, the EU also bribes third countries to get rid of its migrants. In return, it trains African border patrol units and security authorities. The equipment is just a bonus.

The EU-Turkey deal has put Turkey under pressure to push for more bilateral readmission agreements with other countries to deport more of its own refugees.^[1] Outside of Europe, Turkey already has readmission agreements with Syria (2001), Kyrgyzstan (2003), Pakistan (2010), Russia (2011), Nigeria (2011) and Yemen (2011). The 1951 Geneva Refugee Convention does not permit Turkey to repatriate Syrians due to the civil war. Nevertheless, Turkey has already sent Syrians back home while calling it ‘voluntary return’.^[2] Israel’s example has shown how to make people ‘volunteer’.

A spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Ankara said in March 2016 that Turkey wanted to return refugees to their home countries faster by closing treaties with 14 other states. He does not name these countries.^[3] ‘It should stand undisputed that these are crisis countries and by no means safe countries of origin, where the situation has forced people to flee,’ criticizes the NGO Pro Asyl in its legal report on the Turkey Deal in March 2016.^[4]

Similar to Israel, Turkey also offers its partnership to African governments, mostly for infrastructure projects, but also in the military and refugee aid sectors. In recent years, Turkey has opened almost 40 embassies in Africa; only France has more on the continent. Turkey, which still receives financial aid from the EU, is now the fourth-largest donor in Africa.^[5] The recently expanded route network of semi-public Turkish Airlines offers low-cost flights between Europe and Asia and almost all the capitals of Africa via Istanbul, including war zones.

Since the end of 2016, the seat pockets of Turkish Airlines planes feature a magazine in which the government and the airline boast about helping Somali refugees rebuild their destroyed country and return home. Turkey was already involved in the Dadaab refugee camp in Kenya, where Somalis found shelter for 20 years, and even built a mosque. Out of gratitude, the refugees named the district around the prayer house ‘Istanbul’. When Kenya’s and Somalia’s heads of state decided at the UN Refugee Summit in Istanbul in May 2016 to close Dadaab, then the world’s largest refugee camp, and to send the Somalis home, Turkey again offered to help. Since 2012, Turkish Airlines has been the only international airline to serve Somalia’s capital Mogadishu – a risky move, since landing airplanes regularly serve as shooting targets.

In March 2017, Turkish Airlines launched a social media campaign, which spread the word that their flights were not booked out, so they were now transporting relief supplies for returnees to Mogadishu. Celebrities around the world sent donations for the humanitarian transports. Over €2 million were collected.^[6]

Hence the refugee crisis allowed Turkish Airlines to win new customer segments, also in Israel: Some of the deported Eritreans claim that the carrier took them via Istanbul to Rwanda. By connecting African capitals such as Mogadishu to international flight routes, Turkish Airlines is laying the groundwork for deportations from Europe.^[7]

Like Israel, Turkey is also rapidly expanding its involvement in Africa, both economic and military. Turkey is the largest foreign investor in Somalia. Not even a year after offering aid to Somalia, in April 2017, Turkey stations troops on a 1.5mi2 high-security base near the airport of Mogadishu. Here, Turkish officers train Somali soldiers in counter-terrorism tactics and provide equipment to the coast guard. The up-and-coming Turkish defense corporation Aselsan is also active in Somalia. Another Turkish company, Favori, secured the contract for managing the airport for the next 20 years, including security services.^[8]

Numerous African generals were invited to the International Defence Industry Fair (IDEF) in Istanbul in May 2017. After the gun show, the Turkish Minister of Defence signed an agreement for a close military partnership with his Sudanese colleague Abdel Rahim Mohammed Hussein.^[9] Less than six weeks later, President Erdoğan flew to Khartoum to sign an economic partnership agreement.^[10] As in Israel, the deportation wave makes it likely that Turkey will use refugees and migrants as pawns in the negotiations with its new African partners. By showing how to do it, Israel has set off a domino effect.

Egypt on the tipping point

Since the Sinai route to Israel was closed and militias in Libya are detaining more people, refugees from Sudan now head for the Mediterranean via Egypt, states the 2017 Africa-Frontex-Intelligence Community Joint Report.^[11] In September 2016 a smuggling vessel with over 600 people, mostly Africans, capsized off the coastal city of Alexandria – over 100 drowned. Nearly 10 percent of the African migrants arriving in Italy by boat are now passing through Egypt, according to a message from Italy’s Ministry of the Interior to the German government in late 2016.^[12]

The EU is trying to close this door, too. ‘Agreements similar to those we now have with Turkey must be negotiated with Egypt, first of all, but also with other African states,’ Chancellor Merkel said in Vienna in September 2016.^[13] However, Merkel’s statements raised concerns that African countries will expect the same generosity from Europe that Turkey is receiving. ‘Then Merkel will have to see how she gets the Bundestag to approve these funds,’ an EU diplomat told the German Spiegel.^[14]

In November 2016, Germany’s Foreign Office stated that deportations to Egypt violated German asylum law and that Berlin was ‘concerned’ about the human rights situation. There were ‘credible reports of torture and abuse in police custody’ The general conditions in Egyptian prisons were alarming, ‘which is likely to affect detained migrants in the same way as other detainees.’^[15]

The Egyptian government seems to be consistently violating the Geneva Convention on Refugees, which it has ratified. Although the right to asylum is guaranteed in the constitution, Egypt does not carry out any kind of asylum recognition procedure.^[16] On the contrary: Egypt’s Anti-Terrorism Law defines a ‘terrorist act’ as ‘any use of force, violence, threat, or intimidation domestically or abroad for the purpose of disturbing public order, or endangering the safety, interests, or security of the community.’^[17] This can mean not just opposition members, journalists or soccer fans, but also migrants and refugees. In March 2016, hundreds of Ethiopians of the Oromo ethnic group gathered outside the UNHCR office in Cairo to protest the long waiting times and the drop in recognition rates for Ethiopian applicants. The revolt culminated in the self-immolation of two women, who succumbed to their injuries in July 2016.^[18]

Even though a deal between the EU and Egypt is not yet ready to be signed, most provisions were already part of the 2004 Euro-Mediterranean Association Agreements between the EU and seven Mediterranean countries. Working together to curb and control illegal migration was already part of the package, as was the mutual readmission of deported citizens. Egyptians are rarely granted asylum in the EU. Italy pioneered a bilateral agreement in 2007 and is very satisfied with it, according to a report by the European Migration Network (EMN).^[19] When Chancellor Merkel met her colleague al-Sisi in Cairo in March 2017, they discussed the deportation of around 1,000 Egyptians from Germany.^[20]

This tips over the next piece in the domino chain: While Egypt readily takes back its expelled nationals, the authorities in Cairo are in turn busy deporting African migrants back to their countries. Egyptian prisons are full of migrants detained by immigration authorities on their way to Europe.^[21] By 31 August 2016, Egypt had deported 1,100 people not registered with the UNHCR, most of them to Sudan.^[22] Sudan also repatriated refugees to Eritrea and Ethiopia in 2017.^[23]

As in the Israel-Rwanda-Uganda deal, Egypt receives training and equipment from Europe for its security services to close the borders. Bilateral agreements are already in place: Great Britain and France extend military assistance, Germany and Italy support the police. Italian truck maker Iveco supplied the Egyptian police with armored personnel carriers. Egypt also receives ammunition and firearms. Back in 2007, when Italy and Egypt signed their own deportation agreement, Italy handed over two patrol boats to the Egyptian coast guard.

After al-Sisi’s June 2015 visit to the Chancellor in Berlin, Germany also started supporting Egypt’s anti-migration efforts. ‘Considering the current migration situation, the Federal Police intends to intensify cooperation with Egyptian (border) police authorities by offering training and equipment for border protection,’ stated the German government in May 2016, emphasizing that Egypt’s police would get extra lessons on the principles of democracy, rule of law and human rights.^[24]

During a visit to Cairo in April 2016, Federal Minister for Economic Affairs Sigmar Gabriel (Social Democrats) not only talked about the planned sale of two submarines, but also offered help for sealing off the Libyan-Egyptian border and for monitoring the Sinai Peninsula. Two months later, Federal Interior Minister de Maizière and his Egyptian colleague Magdy Abdel Ghaffar signed a memorandum outlining a security agreement on organized crime, terrorism and emergency management.^[25] A corresponding draft was proposed to the German parliament in March 2017.^[26] Gabriel had generously announced on a trip to Cairo in April 2016 that Germany was ‘prepared to help’ the country control its border with Libya.^[27] A few weeks later, the German government confirmed that nothing stood in the way of providing ‘equipment aid’ to the Egyptian border authorities.^[28]

The German Federal Police (Bundespolizei) has since trained Egyptian colleagues on border protection, document security as well as aviation and airport security. The Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) sent a liaison officer to Cairo and trained an employee of the Egyptian National Security Service (NSS) in Wiesbaden.^[29] Andrej Hunko, member of parliament for the Left Party, describes it as ‘aiding and abetting repression.’ After all, the NSS is accused of systematic torture.^[30]

Egypt is regarded as Africa’s largest military power. The military academy near Alexandria has long been a favorite destination for training Africa’s senior officers. Egyptian soldiers are present in several war zones on the continent. Like Turkey, the Sahara state aims not just to stall the ambitions of Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates, but also to enforce its interests in water disputes with southern neighboring states along the Nile. Hence, Egypt is also involved in South Sudan’s civil war. In April 2017, Egyptian opposition members published information in the alternative media that the military would soon be building a base in Eritrea.^[31] Egypt also just launched a close military cooperation with Kenya; the continent’s two major military powers want to establish an African arms industry.^[32]

Next piece: Sudan

Egypt is not the only country that continues to deport refugees to Sudan. Jordan has also flown hundreds of Sudanese refugees, most from the Darfur region, back to Khartoum since early 2017.^[33] Even from Europe people are deported to Khartoum – from the refugee encampment in Calais, France, known as ‘the Jungle.’ Rome closed an agreement with Sudan’s Ministry of Interior in August 2016. Italy was to fund a training course for Sudanese border troops; in return it deported 48 rejected asylum seekers. So the EU is starting to follow Israel’s example.

Like yet another domino piece, Sudan began to systematically deport Eritreans to their neighboring home country in May 2016. Gerry Simpson of Human Rights Watch (HRW) spoke of at least 442 people: ‘Sudan has arrested the Eritreans and handed them over to a repressive government using force.’^[34] The Eritreans had been caught by Sudan’s border guards, imprisoned and charged with crossing the border illegally. Refugees must stay inside the camps and are only registered there by the authorities and the UNHCR. Those who enter illegally and are caught outside of the camps face up to two years’ imprisonment.^[35] The prisons and camps in Sudan are full of migrants and refugees, and the prison conditions are inhumane. General Awad al-Neel Dahiya, responsible for migration affairs at Sudan’s Ministry of Interior, confirmed the systematic arrest of migrants and refugees along Sudan’s borders in a January 2018 interview: ‘If they are refugees, we bring them back to the camps,’ said Dahiya, “If they are irregular migrants, they are issued travel documents in cooperation with their embassies and then we take them back to their home country.’^[36]

The current UNHCR press spokesman Stefan Telöken had already warned in 1993: ‘There is now a latent danger of a deportation chain – in breach of international law – at the end of which refugees will find themselves dumped back into the country from which they fled.’ He further noted that the concept of safe third countries served primarily as a justification for denying asylum claims.^[37] Considering the EU-Turkey Deal, this danger is as topical as ever.