683

As I said in (Chapter A) I had hoped to have this book published before November 6-but whatever chance I had-and it was perhaps an uphill fight even then-was taken off the table after I had gallstone issues since Friday, October 26.

Still as God, luck, or Providence would have it I got out of the Good Samaritan Hospital last night in time to vote and attend Liuba Grechen Shirley’s victory party tonight. Technically Nate Silver has NY2 as a ‘Lean Republican’ district and gives her just under a 28% chance. That might sound like long odds but 28% if about the chance Trump had in 2016 and the prediction that the Dems win Congress is based on the premise that a number of Lean Republican districts will fall.

Liuba, our Dem nominee candidate in NY2 has run a phenomenal campaign-she’s already started getting things done for us with that FEC win back in May and there is an energy around her campaign almost reminiscent of Obama in 2008. Campaigning for her is easy-when you knock on their door or get them on the phone they stop you ‘Yes Liuba’s the best. I’m voting for her my wife is voting for her, if you need a ride we’ll drive you out to vote for her…’

In the larger picture this is D-Day: when you consider the racist, xenophobic, and authoritarian character of ‘President Trump’-to say nothing of his (lack of) legitimacy-this is a D-Day in the American domestic context. We must have a Democratic Congress as a check on Trump, to restore Congress to a co-equal role with this dangerous, unfit, authoritarian “President’, this illegitimate ‘President’, this illegitimate ‘man.’

Corey Lewandwoski, who apparently doesn’t think Trump is legitimate either-why else would he speak of ‘the evasions of the Clinton Administration?’ (Chapter B) was out this morning trying to cover his illegitimate boss’ ass by arguing that while you had to admit the reality that the Dems may well take the House, Obama lost 61 seats in 2010, Clinton lost 54 in 1994 so if Trump loses say 40 then that’s just a historical trend.

40 seats? I’ll take it as that’s the level the Dems need for  a Blue Wave tailwind to take the Senate as well. Steve Schmidt-with all the talk of 2020, sometimes I think this recovering Republican would be my choice at this early stage-really don’t care a whit about 2020 right now, I care about the next two years in terms of what this Congress must do. But the recovering GOPers seem to get it best. It’s those like Schmidt, Max Boot, Jennifer Rubin, David Frum, Bill Kristol who seem to really get it: this is not about ideology. I’m a liberal-or ‘progressive’ if you prefer-but what matters to me are the American values that the Russian installed Trump knows nothing about-like birth right citizenship.

FN: As it happens that Democrats would win exactly 40 seats and it would have been more than even Obama lost in 2010 if it weren’t for gerrymandering and redistricting.

Schmidt doesn’t make it complicated:

Ex-Republican Operative Steve Schmidt: ‘The Party of Trump Must Be Obliterated. Annihilated. Destroyed’

Amen!

UPDATE: Schmidt didn’t make it complicated until he joined the stillborn Howard Schultz campaign-which sort of took away his credibility as someone who sees defeating Trump as the overriding priority in 2020 full stop.

Anyway, last night he said something that made so much sense I notice that Brian Williams simply passed over without comment: it makes as much sense to believe that there’s a Blue Wave that will effect only the House as that there’s an earthquake that will effect California but not Oregon.

To be sure, the BW effect is shown if the GOP ends up picking up just a seat or two-as they previously expected to pick up eight with such a favorable map. But in (Chapter D) I did predict the Dems take the Senate-glad to see that great minds think alike.

Ok so Jonathan Capehart on MSNBC just reported that Kevin Cramer’s team is worried about Heitkamp-Kramer is out knocking on doors this morning. I’d argued in (Chapter C) the news of her death the media has been telling may be greatly exaggerated-the one big counterindicator to the polls has been her astonishing fundraising haul after she said no on Kavanaugh. Wouldn’t this just be the cherry on top if she did throw eggs in the entire MSM punditocracy’s faces? She’d not just make them wildly wrong but also totally blow up the ‘Kavanaugh momentum’ canard-as we saw in (Chapter D) there’s never been much evidence of it.

This is totally in line with the idea that the Blue Wave is hitting the Senate as well-though the map is much tougher.

 

 

Nate Silver’s latest on his ‘Deluxe model’

Exactly. While it doesn’t give the Dems a much better chance of winning the Senate than the GOP of holding onto the House, I think that logically it’s much more likely to see the former than the latter-after all there’s a Blue Wave. Unless somehow everyone is mistaken about that, a Dem Senate is just a lot more plausible than a GOP House.

UPDATE 2.0: While the Dems won 40 seats they lost two Senate seats-which in reality was a pretty good showing as the map was so perilous for them in 2018.

As has been said, this race has all the character of a Presidential race-the energy, the number of early votes cast-all the numbers blow 2014 out the water It would seem this already foreshadows a Blue Wave-the reason the GOP does best when its low turnout. The very fact of a high voter turnout is an ominous sign: after all, this is the party of minority power, of the minority dominating the majority.

UPDATE 3.0: There was indeed huge turnout more like a Presidential year than an off year.

http://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/2019/07/01-2020-election-forecast/

Why would there be a GOP House? The theory behind it propounded is that ‘well the polls were wrong in 2016 so maybe they’re wrong again.’ In other words every year is like 2016? How logical is that? Let alone the canard that the polls were wildly wrong in 2016-the national polls were actually pretty close-much closer than 2012. But then, the media is determined to learn the wrong lessons from 2016.

UPDATE: 3:33 EST and it’s already clear this is going to be a record setting day in turnout.

 

 

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/republicans-worry-trump-s-closing-argument-will-cost-them-seats-n931826

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

License

October 28, 2016: a Day That Will Live in Infamy Copyright © by . All Rights Reserved.

Share This Book