315 Why Elon Musk’s Third Party COULD Poise a Serious Threat to Trump
Even a busted clock is right once a day-or is it twice?
“We have certain things in common.” Trump’s birthday card to Jeffrey Epstein Circa 2003
— Helen Pappas❤️💙 (@hpappas.bsky.social) 2025-07-18T11:10:51.171Z
7/12/2025
It seems to me that most of the early mainstream commentary on Musk’s suggestion that he’ll start a new political party called The American Party has been fairly dismissive-I’ve seen pieces that argue if he goes forward with it Musk’s venture will likely be stillborn. While that certainly may be the case IMHV Musk has a better chance at success than the conventional wisdom presumes.
For a few reasons. Nate Silver did a piece where he argued that the mainstream media has been TOO bearish that Musk’s American Party could go anywhere. To be clear he himself is bearish which is why I emphasize TOO-Silver himself is bearish but less bearish than the conventional wisdom which has been VERY bearish.
Can Elon’s America Party succeed where others have failed?
“Probably not. Unless Musk is truly thinking big.”
Well right off the bat Musk is in a position to THINK BIG if anyone is. He has the money, the 100% name recognition and a very high profile powerful platform in Xitter. As he says correctly there’s a very good argument that without his money AND amplification on X-of all the MAGA lies and disinformation-Trump doesn’t win that election-and we and much of the entire world are in MUCH BETTER shape today;
He also clearly is disgruntled and has the vindicative streak to follow through-he’s decided that he was wronged and once again he has the money and social media platform to hit back very hard. While he could just forgive and forget this doesn’t sound like him.
But back to Nate Silver:
If it’s real, I lean slightly toward the view that this is a bigger deal than the pundit class might want to acknowledge. Their reasons for skepticism are obvious and probably correct, but if there’s a 5 percent chance this could be a huge deal and a 25 percent chance it could be a moderately big one, that’s still at least worth some Silver Bulletin coverage.”
Now it’s true that the record of third parties in the US is abysmal-Trump himself has recently be using this-accurate-talking point, a busted clock is right once a day and for once Trump finds it convenient to glom onto a accurate fact. Silver spends some time documenting this abysmal history but then goes onto argue that the current generation are more open to third parties.
If you’re looking for bright spots for third parties, though, here’s one. Younger voters are considerably more likely to be disengaged from the major parties, and particularly young men, who have become a swing demographic as we covered in the last SBSQ. These men might be disillusioned by a Democratic Party that doesn’t seem to have their interests in mind and who have had their fill of wokeness, but also aren’t exactly traditional economic or social conservatives.”
A lot of pundits, especially on the left, think that American democracy is on the verge of collapse, or that the world is about to enter a period of rapid change driven by AI and other factors. Such profound technological change often begets political change: the Industrial Revolution catalyzed, at least in part, the American Revolution and the French Revolution. There’s a certain myopia in assuming that if the world is on the brink of such a period, the kludgy old two-party system, tended to by back-to-back presidents who entered their terms at 78 years old, will nevertheless survive mostly intact.”
This is not the main reason I personally see Musk’s proposed American party as a potential serious threat to MAGA. I mean not going to predict wether or not the “kludgy old two-party system” is or is not in trouble-the obvious counterargument is that this kludgy old system has lasted 165 years and counting. Back to Silver:
A third party might be viable, but not necessarily the America Party
Here I disagree-if ANY third party can be viable in the near future it seems to me the American Party is the most likely candidate. Because the MAGA coalition is so fragile-and there are so many who voted for Trump out of delusion and ignorance.
“But … what would an America Party platform look like? Well, Elon was piqued by The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, describing it as wasteful. Deficits are indeed a valid concern in an era of higher interest rates, but they are traditionally one for older voters living on fixed incomes on their retirement savings. Perhaps there’s a bit of daylight with some clever marketing — some young men are pretty into crypto as a supposed inflation hedge, for instance, and interest rates affect the cost of buying a home. But it’s a bit of an esoteric concern, at least up until the point that the U.S. actually faces a fiscal crisis.
If Elon is just formulating the America Party out of spite, as some former friends suggest he is, mostly to challenge Trump from a libertarian-ish direction, that could still be problematic for Trump and Republicans. In 2024, four U.S. Senate races and 11 U.S. House seats were decided by two percentage points or less. So an America Party that got just 2 percent of the vote in competitive districts, mostly coming from Republicans, might qualify as an embarrassment for Elon, but could nevertheless hurt the GOP in what is already likely to be a difficult midterm for the party.
UPDATE: While I have seen many liberals like Luke miss the point on the Epstein furor we should point out that many Congressional Dems ARE seizing on this opportunity and utilizing it effectively
Emptywheel on Nicole Sandler?
The Congressional Dems have gotten so much criticism-much of it deserved-but here is something they’ve been doing right. In summation this should continue to be a faultline for the GOP Dems can and should continue to exploit in myriad, creative ways.
(12) Is It True? Am I The New Jeffrey Epstein? I Sure Hope So!
Nick Feuntes denounces Trump: “Liberals were right.” Hmmm-well THAT has the inconvenience of being true www.msn.com/en-us/news/p…
Love Luke by why the skepticism there’s any there there?
(19) BREAKING: MAGA Suffers MENTAL BREAKDOWN Over Trump’s Epstein Announcement! – YouTube
(19) Saagar vs Michael Tracey: Was Epstein an Intel Asset? – YouTube
Tracey- contrarian for the sake of being contrarian
Ezra Klein interview shows the fallacy in Tracey claiming just one allegedly-according to Tracey-“nutty woman” making baseless allegation
(19) Saagar vs Michael Tracey: Was Epstein an Intel Asset? – YouTube
Kyle is right-why the skepticism?
(19) EXPOSED: TRUMP’S ENTIRE HISTORY WITH JEFFREY EPSTEIN | The Kyle Kulinski Show – YouTube
Klein’s guest is an excellent corrective to Tracey’s whole contrarian poise while his argument being a complete canard.
(19) Why Trump Can’t Shake Jeffrey Epstein | The Ezra Klein Show – YouTube
ill Sommer has been tracking conspiracies for years now. He was a reporter at The Washington Post and is now at @bulwarkmedia and he’s the author of “Trust the Plan: The Rise of QAnon and the Conspiracy That Unhinged America.”
Still KLein himself goes to a typical estalbishment liberal type postion of “I don’t know anything so it’s speculation”-there ARE facts. And enough for many genuine questions. It’s called-probable cause
“We have certain things in common.” Trump’s birthday card to Jeffrey Epstein Circa 2003
— Helen Pappas❤️💙 (@hpappas.bsky.social) 2025-07-18T11:10:51.171Z
How Ghislaine Maxwell Is Riding the New Jeffrey Epstein Wave | Vanity Fair
Opinion | She Exposed Epstein, and Shares MAGA’s Anger – The New York Times
FBI Agents Told To ‘Flag’ Epstein Files Mentioning Trump, Senator Claims
Hmmm-JD Vance was actually visiting Rupert Murdoch’s ranch just before Wall Street bombshell about Trump’s birthday card to Epstein broke. Cui bono-who benefits?
https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/what-was-jd-vance-doing-at-rupert-murdoch-s-ranch-just-before-wsj-dropped-trump-epstein-bombshell-rumors-swirl/ar-AA1J0L6H?ocid=BingNewsSerp