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Is Beto underrated or overrated?
Silver credits Beto for managing expectations game
The expectations game is dumb — among other things, it gives the media too large a role in the primary process — and maybe both voters and the media have become more sophisticated to the point where it matters less than it once did. (Recent Iowa caucuses have not produced especially largebounces, for instance.) I wouldn’t be so sure about that, though. Keeping expectations in check was a big problem in the Democratic primaries in 2016 for Hillary Clinton, who had one of the more robust victories of the modern primary era but who didn’t (and still doesn’t) get a lot of credit for it.
Conversely, one of President Trump’s big strengths in the primaries was to completely dominate media coverage — a big advantage when you need to differentiate yourself in a field of 17 candidates — while keeping expectations low. Usually, more coverage and higher expectations go hand-in-hand; the more hype you get, the more the press expects you to perform well in debates, polls, fundraising and, ultimately, in primaries and caucus. But Trump had a knack for trolling the media and for hacking the news cycle to make sure that he remained the center of the conversation. It’s not that this necessarily required great skill on Trump’s behalf, but he was canny enough to know that the media’s behavior is fairly predictable and therefore easy to manipulate. Meanwhile, lots of folks in the media — and certainly us here at FiveThirtyEight — were way too willing to dismiss polls showing Trump well ahead of the Republican field from the summer of 2015 onward. A high volume of coverage but low expectations is the best of both worlds for a candidate in the primaries, and Trump got it.
Beto fundraising number suggests Bernie now officially yesterday's news, faces stiff competition for youth vote
— Jennifer Truth Over Phony Balance Rubin 🇺🇦🇮🇱 (@JRubinBlogger) March 18, 2019
Beto’s such a weird candidate, and the press coverage of him is also so weird (obsessive but currently quite cynical but also prone to big mood swings) that I think it’s probably best to stick to objective benchmarks (e.g. polls, fundraising) when analyzing his chances.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 17, 2019
It was a pretty good troll — and discipline — to keep that $6.1M Beto raised in 24hrs a surprise over the weekend https://t.co/nqsD7bB6Mm
— Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) March 18, 2019
More and more have to agree with @NateSilver538 take that Beto is while not maybe not the favorite underestimated by the MSM coverage https://t.co/aE9TMY8893
— Expand the Court (@ProChoiceMike) March 18, 2019
The Kennedys were very successful politicians. Beto DOES seem to have this Bobby Kennedy thing going on
— Expand the Court (@ProChoiceMike) March 18, 2019
Beto also gets major props for smacking down Chuck Todd https://t.co/ysa4vOiGCQ
— Expand the Court (@ProChoiceMike) March 18, 2019
Very revealing as soon as those fund raising #'s were released they went after him on morning Joe with no holds bar, its all just so predictable I could write a book
— Helen (Get Vaccinated it will save your life) (@HMFL85) March 18, 2019
Again Beto's not my first choice-that being Kamala-but we can certainly do worse. I will, OF COURSE, vote for whatever DEMOCRAT wins the nomination-it goes without saying not Bernie as Bernie's not a Democrat
— Expand the Court (@ProChoiceMike) March 18, 2019
But I guess this nonsense of him downloading free video games as a kid is his version of Emailgate-Joe used the damn email as his excuse for voting for Trump last time. Will free video games be the excuse this time?
— Expand the Court (@ProChoiceMike) March 18, 2019
The irony is Beto isn't my first choice-though the party can do muh worse- but the more Morning Joe and the MSMers unfairly attack and malign him the more I'm forced to defend him and support him
— Expand the Court (@ProChoiceMike) March 18, 2019
They're actually making Beto more sympathetic
— Expand the Court (@ProChoiceMike) March 18, 2019
Exactly clearly a response to that. He's not my 1st choice either but 2 things make me like him more 1. He's getting under skin of the GOP co-conspirators and MSMers 2. He beat HIs Holy True Progressive Eminence Bernie Sanders 1st day numbers
— Expand the Court (@ProChoiceMike) March 18, 2019
https://twitter.com/BluthX/status/1107616702303330304
Beto raised so much money online that he should change his name to Beto eRourke. https://t.co/CpZX7QYlLz
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 18, 2019