96

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/07/us/politics/biden-2020.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

1. He gets in and his poll numbers-already leading the pack-soar. Monmouth has him at 28% nationally with Bernie in 2nd at 25%. If Biden’s numbers see the same spike Bernie’s did after getting in who does he take support from? Bernie had a jump of about 70% that would take Biden to the high 40s-which seems a bit high considering his higher jump off point.

It seems to me that candidate he’s most like-Hickenlooper, and Kloubachar already have little support.

2. He gets in and where his numbers are now are the highest they will ever be. There is so much in his 45 year record for progressive purists to attack him on-he voted for Iraq and Hillary was pilloried for that ditto the crime bill. Then there’s Anita Hill, voting to overturn Roe v. Wade in 1982,. that terrible bill that rolled back Chapter 11 to the benefit of the credit card companies in 2005-that Hillary most certainly did not support. Indeed, on Friday there was already discussion of Biden opposing busing way back in 1975.

If his numbers fall where does his support go?

Again, it seems to me that Kloubachar and Hicklooper are most like him though, Biden also is currently getting a lot of African American support. If that support left him it might logically go to Cory Booker and Kamala Harris.

I argue that Biden, Kloubachar, and Hickenlooper are all in the same lane-here’s a 538 analysis from Michael Cohen that argues there are actually six distinct lanes in the Democratic party.

A rubric for making sense of divides and disagreements in the modern Democratic Party:https://t.co/6ExkFsM0Uc

— Micah Cohen (@micahcohen) March 11, 2019

I think you can safely talk about three at least in the primary.

And if Biden doesn’t run?

If Biden chooses not to run, about a quarter of his support would go to Sanders, with Harris being the second beneficiary. Recalculating current Democratic support using the second choice of Biden voters gives Sanders a total of 32%, Harris 15%, Warren 10%, O’Rourke 7%, Booker 6%, and Klobuchar 3%.

“Without Biden in the race, Sanders could replicate the level of national support he had in 2016. But it’s not clear how much more he can build on that with so many fresh faces in the field,” said Murray. In the current poll, 61% of Democrats say they supported Clinton in 2016 and 34% say they backed Sanders. A March 2016 poll – the last time Monmouth conducted a national preference poll of the Democratic nomination that year – had party support for Clinton at 55% and Sanders at 37%.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_031119.pdf/

So no but not that great among Bernie supporters either

— Expand the Court (@ProChoiceMike) March 11, 2019