666

Whenever Trump perpetuates the latest outrage some in the MSM ask if this is going to make any difference to his base. Put that way the answer is obviously not. In a sense it never matters to the base. Every President-including our faux ‘President’ has a base of support. Nixon had a base of support too that never left him-about 20% just like George W. Bush’s base of support was in the 20s.

But the real question is how big is Trump’s base? That remains to be seen but it’s not 40% which is where his popularity has hovered around during the first two years. Now it is true that Trump’s support among Republicans is very high-interesting how during the election the media focus was always on independents but now it’s solely Republican voters. But this is not really an addition but a subtraction as the number of people calling themselves Republicans has contracted.

UPDATE: As we will see in (Chapter A) the exit polls that came out November 6 validate my theory here.

Regarding my theory that Trump’s ‘real base’ of support is considerably less than 40% that has still neither been confirmed or debunked as we are still waiting the Dems to begin impeachment hearings that will hopefully begin in September-but we’ve already been disappointed many times in the first eight months of the Dem House.

End of UPDATE.

And that is what we will likely see in the next two years-Trump’s base ‘will never leave him’ but it will shrink. But this depends crucially on November’s elections.

While Rudy Giuliani has rightly been skewered for his ‘the truth isn’t true’  meme

he is right on one thing: the November elections will decide impeachment

 

Yes, when I say Trump’s numbers will drop but only after the election that presumes the Democrats win. You can look at Trump’s popularity-it’s about 40%-in two different ways.

1. Historically they are the lowest in history at this point in the term especially considering that the economy by most metrics is doing pretty well-though wage growth remains tepid. Trump is a very unpopular ‘President.’

2. Still with what we learn about him and his Administration to say nothing of Russia, you could argue that 40% is considerably higher than you might expect.

What accounts for a ‘President’ credibly accused of coordination, collusion, and conspiracy-of to paraphrase John Brennan of going down a treasonous path still having a 40% approval rating? In a word Devin Nunes, Jim Jordan, Peter King-the GOP Congress. Adam Schiff relates how after Comey’s testimony in March, 2017 that there was in fact an investigation into both Russian interference and possible Trump campaign collusion, he heard from all the GOP members who all felt that it was a terrible day.

Why was it so bad? Because it caused the illegitimate ‘President’ political trouble and embarrassment. And so the House GOP made sure the hearings were all behind closed doors going forward. Now, of course, they’ve long since ended the probe outright but even when they were on, it was a halfhearted effort-no attempt was made to followup with witnesses by looking at phone calls, texts, and emails to ascertain if they were actually telling the truth.

The interviews amounted to:

Q: So did you collude, Mr. Donald Trump Jr?

A: No I didn’t and know of no one who did. There was no collusion.

Q: There you go Democrats-there was no collusion.

And, crucially this was behind closed doors. If the hearings were public-as they should be as there is a clear public interest in knowing about what happened in our elections-Trump’s numbers would be 10-20% lower.

So Giuliani is right impeachment will be decided in November-if the GOP holds onto the House, its over-he consolidates his illegitimate reign. Paul Krugman is rightly pushing the panic button on what happens if the Dems don’t take the House:

UPDATE 2.0: As it emerges the idea that the election will decide impeachment was not entirely true-without a Dem victory which obtained = there would be no chance for impeachment. But how much there is with #TeamPelosi very much remains to be seen. While Jerrold Nadler loyally assures us that no one wants to see Trump held accountable than Speaker Pelosi we’ve seen scant evidence for this just yet-her talk about Trump going to prison was just a diversionary shell game.

“Even now, I don’t think most political commentators have grasped how deep the rot goes. I don’t think they understand, or at any rate admit to themselves, that democracy really could die just a few months from now.”

“Make no mistake: if Republicans hold both houses of Congress this November, Trump will go full authoritarian, abusing institutions like the I.R.S., trying to jail opponents and journalists on, er, trumped-up charges, and more — and he’ll do it with full support from his party.”

Indeed, we already see this happening before our eyes. Trump’s taking away Brennan’s security clearance because of his sharp criticism of Trump has whetted his appetite.

 

It reminds you of those old Highlights magazines for kids where you have to figure out ‘what’s wrong with this picture?’ There is so much here. Indeed, tagging Hannity approvingly as an alleged member of the media in itself is major abuse of power. As it is Hannity is basically the head of Trump’s version of Kremlin state tv.[1] But now he’s threatening to take away Mudd’s security clearance for no reason other than holding a view Trump doesn’t find palatable-that it’s wrong to use security clearances as a political weapon.

Krugman is right-democracy really could die in a couple of months. I mean look how brazen Trump is becoming now! Imagine him in November if they hold onto Congress? Then he will know he will face no meaningful oversight in Congress for another two years.

FN: Alas if Pelosi has her way he may still face none. He hasn’t faced much yet.

End of FN.

It’s like Obama warned in 2016-democracy is on the ballot, civil rights are on the ballot, criminal justice reform is on the ballot, healthcare is on the ballot. Too many didn’t heed him then.

Meanwhile Steve Bannon is back and argues: Blue wave=impeachment and says if elections were held today they’d lose 35-40 seats

“Former White House chief political strategist Steve Bannon has a bleak message for Republicans looking to retain control of the House in the 2018 midterms: If you don’t stop the blue wave, your heads won’t be the only ones that roll — President Donald Trump’s will, too.”

“Last week, Bannon announced the launch of his initiative, Citizens of the American Republic, to help the GOP keep its House majority by tying a Democratic victory in November to impeachment.”

“This is not a typical midterm year, Bannon warned in an interview with The Associated Press over the weekend. If the midterms were held today instead of in November, he believes Republicans would lose 35 to 40 seats.”

Which would be more than enough to restore accountability. Electing a Dem Congress in 2018 is a vote for the accountability Congress.

“You can’t look at this as a midterm and you can’t run it out of the traditional Republican playbook,” Bannon said. “If you do that, you’re going to get smoked.”

Bannon is arguing that to win, Republicans have to run against impeachment, have to warn the base that a Dem Congress means impeachment.

“Republicans’ strategy to avoid a bludgeoning this fall should be to lean into getting as many solid Trump supporters as possible out to the polls to vote for Republicans who wouldn’t impeach him, Bannon indicated. The way he sees it, most people have already taken up their respective sides, so focusing campaign messaging on voters who are on the fence is a waste of resources.”

“This is not about persuasion. It’s too late to persuade anybody,” Bannon said. “We’re 90 days away from this election. This is all about turnout and what I call base-plus.”

UPDATE: The good news for Bannon is he was right-the GOP ended up losing 40 seats. The bad news is his Citizens of the American Republic was totally ineffective at stemming the bleeding. Still maybe he needn’t have worried so much-it turns out Pelosi is almost as against impeaching Trump as Bannon and Trump themselves are.

As for his strategy there’s something to say for it-I don’t buy that Trump is a political genius-as much of the MSM and Democratic leadership seem to have decided-but I do think one thing Trump is right about is that it’s about turnout not persuasion. But everything the Democrats say suggest they care more about persuading Republicans than mobilizing Democrats.

That’s the one thing the Dem and GOP Establishment both agree on-both sides care more about GOP voters.

Clearly then he proposes that GOPers can only win by hugging Trump with both arms. Certainly many Republicans have bought into this idea; quite notably Keli Ward.

Li Zhou reports that Arizona Senate candidate Kelli Ward is so eager to show GOP primary voters her loyalty to Trump that she’s campaigning with an alt-right figure who propagated the lunatic “pizzagate” conspiracy theory.

As Krugman notes the big story is how much the GOP has embraced Trump and refused to provide any meaningful oversight. Expect this to continue through to November as well.

As I argued above, at this point, we’re in somewhat of a short term pre election equilibrium-this is the truth of Bannon’s notion that it’s too late to persuade anybody. The GOP has no good option-they can either embrace Trump which hurts them with the larger electorate or they can repudiate him which hurts the with the base.

For now they are embracing him. If they have a bad November-if they lose Bannon’s 35-40 seats, etc, at that point you might see some of them rethink their lockstep support of Trump but not before then-which is why when some of them finally do break from Trump it will be too late for them to get any credit in terms of integrity and principle.

FN: This didn’t happen either-they have continued as they did before. Part of this might be that all most of the GOPers in blue or purple districts were taken out. There are potentially some GOP Senators that may be vulnerable in 2020-Cory Gardner, Martha McSally, Susan Collins, etc.

So Republicans are likely following Bannon’s proposal which is not to say that he has any standing with the Trumpkin GOP today.

“Bannon’s Citizens of the American Republic will be funded by a group of private donors, though he declined to say who exactly they were.”

“The former Oval Office confidant fell out of the president’s favor in January after he was quoted criticizing Trump in a controversial book, “Fire and Fury,” by author Michael Wolff.”

It’s unclear how much sway he has over Republican voters.

“Bannon’s Citizens of the American Republic will be funded by a group of private donors, though he declined to say who exactly they were.”

“The former Oval Office confidant fell out of the president’s favor in January after he was quoted criticizing Trump in a controversial book, “Fire and Fury,” by author Michael Wolff.

“It’s unclear how much sway he has over Republican voters.”

Probably not much after Trump excommunicated him. And his record on races so far in the last 20 months hasn’t been so impressive.

As for Trump his theory of the case-his one clear, abiding faith is that he himself is possessed of exceptional political instincts-to be sure, his record while in the Russia White House hasn’t been so hot either-he, like Bannon, supported Roy Moore. But it is his only faith. Paul Waldman asks the question if his overconfidence is bad for GOP turnout this fall. 

“Like any salesman, President Trump believes in the power of confidence. He neither admits nor predicts defeat; everything he does is the biggest and greatest, and everything he’ll do in the future will be even bigger and greater. As he said in 2016, “We’re gonna win, win, win. You’re gonna get so tired of winning, you’re gonna say ‘Mr. President, we don’t want to win anymore, it’s too much.’” And for months, despite all the evidence that Democrats will make large gains in November’s elections, he has been insisting that not only is he incredibly popular but that Republicans will win a glorious victory in the polls as a “red wave” sweeps across the country.”

“But now some Republicans are worrying that Trump’s overconfidence may be not just unwarranted but actually a problem in itself, something that could make defeat more likely.”

Yes, the some GOPers worry that his fanciful talk of a red wave could actually make the blue wave bigger.

Here’s what Jonathan Swan of Axios is reporting:

“What we’re hearing: One of those strategists told me he’s detecting something interesting — and concerning — from focus groups of Trump voters. “You have Trump-MAGA loyalists, and their friends on Fox, who have reached a point of not believing polls and media people telling them things are going wrong, that I believe is actually causing the Republicans problems,” the strategist told me, granted anonymity in order to be candid. […]”

“Questionable outlier polls like Rasmussen that favor the president have lulled and reassured Trump’s base. The president tweets out the polls, his media mouthpieces echo them, and his voters feel pacified — and, several top strategists I’ve interviewed fear, less motivated to show up in November.”

Trump’s disdain for mainstream polling fits his larger pattern: he believes in his own instincts-after all he ‘won’ right? Therefore everything he did was good, right, clearly worked-otherwise he would not have ‘won’-right?

And the polls did predict a Clinton win, so in his mind it’s case closed-the polls are all wrong, and he’s right. To be sure, Nate Silver points out that the polling error in 2016 was actually pretty small-just 1.3%; they had predicted a 3.8% Clinton win and she won by 2.5% but the GOP leaning electoral college went Trump’s way even though he lost by 3 million votes.

At the end of the day it’s very simple my friends: there’s a battle for the Soul of America. Vote as if the future of democracy is on the ballot-because it is.

The choice is start: either Trump consolidates his illegitimate regime or we #MakeAmericaLegitimateAgain.

UPDATE: Ok… so regarding the central thesis of this chapter the jury’s still very much out. I was certainly right they wouldn’t tank before the election but they haven’t done so after either.

However, as I argued in Chapter A we can’t say that my theory that public impeachment hearings will tank his numbers is wrong yet as we haven’t done public impeachment hearings. Maybe based on at least some of what they’re saying the Democrats will be beginning them when they get back.

Certainly happy to hear they may be coming back from recess early-it’s useless to claim as the House Democratic leaders have been doing that Trump is a Constitutional Crisis then go on vacation for six weeks-who do they think they are fooling? They always worry the country will turn against them for being too mean to the fake ‘President’ but what do they think the message the country is getting from their have it both ways approach here? Either they are lying that this is a Constitutional Crisis or they are diddling while Rome burns.

What we can say conclusively-wether or not the impeachment hearings do tank Trump”s numbers, presuming the Democrats actually follow through with the said impeachment hearings when they return-is that Trump’s numbers are not teflon and does not have a rock granite floor at 42% that you can never get him under-just see how his numbers crashed into the 30s after his unilateral government shutdown in January-as EmptyWheel argues, that whole episode in itself is yet another impeachable offense of this illegitimately ‘elected President.’

This clearly shows that at least some things can get his numbers under 40%. Wether the impeachment hearings do remains to be seen if the Democrats really are going to finally get serious-I’d have more confidence in this if Richie Neal would actually put his court case in for Trump’s tax returns; Neal claims he can’t accept NY State’s very thoughtful gift of Trump’s state returns because this will somehow harm his federal case for the federal returns all at the same time that Neal has refused to put in his federal case for the federal returns.

In fact it’s now becoming clear that Trump’ s numbers are falling again in the fallout from El Paso-Dayton and the heartbreaking video of that little girl whose father Trump so cruelly and needlessly arrested has gone viral.

The Obama economy has remained strong and Trump has missed no opportunity to falsely take credit for it but at the same time he’s doing everything he can in these needless trade wars with China, et al-to harm the strong Obama economy.

Of course, for the many Americans struggling to make ends meet and who don’t have $400 dollars in savings for an emergency all this talk of a strong economy is something of a misnomer.

 

 

  1. FN: In truth John Kelly never had a chance-Hannity is and always has been his legitimate Chief of Staff. Chapter A for more. ↵

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