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You could write a book, a long book, on the parallels and symmetries between Nixon and Trump-ie, between Watergate and Watergate 2.0. Watergate 2.0 is like the first Watergate only more so. Indeed, hacking into the DNC was much more effective than Howard Hunt and G. Gordon Liddy’s bumbling burglary in the physical Watergate.
The common cast of characters are coming into focus. Michael Cohen is now clearly shaping up to be Trump’s John Dean. True, in a sense this is very unfair to John Dean who was/is a much better human being that Cohen could even imagine being. Unlike Cohen, Dean really was a very competent lawyer and seemed to have a genuine sense of regret for his actions, whereas you suspect Cohen is basically just about saving his own skin. But then it’s not a surprise that Donald Trump’s version of Dean would be a much less competent lawyer and be totally amoral. That’s what it takes to work for Trump.
Michael Flynn seems to have emerged as a Howard Hunt type-both were also spooks. Flynn flipped after Mueller got to his son, just like Hunt was determined not to be the one left holding the bag for Tricky Dick-especially after his wife died in a plane crash.
The one who was left holding the bag-G. Gordon Liddy-chose that role for himself. He refused to cooperate, and he served the longest sentence among the Watergate criminals.
For whatever reason-he’s counting on a pardon?-this seems to be the role Manafort has assumed for himself in Watergate 2.0.
https://lastmenandovermen.com/2018/07/28/in-watergate-2-0-paul-manafort-has-emerged-as-trumps-g-gordon-liddy-and-his-trial-starts-next-week/
He is the first witness in the Mueller case to actually go to trial-because he’s elected not to cooperate. Seth Abramson argues that we should be on a Cooperation Watch for Manafort.
All of America should be on a Manafort Cooperation Watch today through the moment just prior to return of verdict.
Any criminal defense attorney you would speak to, including me, would tell you that the right decision for Manafort is to enter into a cooperation deal immediately. https://t.co/xnwTlb3fWh
— Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson) July 30, 2018
“The first trial arising from Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russia’s election interference is set to begin this week. But the topic won’t be a conspiracy between President Donald Trump’s campaign and Moscow—and the government says its witnesses may not even utter the word Russia.”
“Instead, prosecutors will outline the alleged financial crimes committed by Trump’s former campaign chairman Paul Manafort while he worked as an adviser to Ukraine’s pro-Russian former president Viktor Yanukovych—work that earned Manafort more than $60 million over the course of a decade, according to court documents filed by Mueller on Monday, which he allegedly laundered and concealed from the IRS. Jurors will be presented with evidence of Manafort’s lavish lifestyle, including multimillion-dollar homes, expensive cars, Major League Baseball tickets, and antique carpets. The government could call as many as 35 witnesses to testify, including Manafort’s longtime business partner Rick Gates.”
“Additionally, Manafort was reportedly in debt to pro-Russian interests by as much as $17 million by the time he joined the Trump campaign, which he ran at the height of the 2016 presidential election. One of the biggest outstanding questions in the Mueller probe is whether Manafort gave a Kremlin-linked Russian oligarch access to the campaign in exchange for debt relief. But Mueller may also have other ambitions—like flipping Manafort.”
“Mueller wants to get a conviction, but I do think this is a trial aimed at cooperation,” said Harry Sandick, a former federal prosecutor in the Southern District of New York. Sandick noted that a conviction could be a powerful incentive for Manafort to strike a deal with prosecutors to reduce his prison sentence. “Even after someone has been convicted, they can apply for a sentencing reduction based on cooperation,” Sandick said.
Others disagree:
Not everyone thinks that’s likely. Daniel Goldman, also a former federal prosecutor in the Southern District of New York, said that while it’s “possible to do it that way,” it is “very rare” that someone goes to trial and then cooperates. “I do not believe that Manafort will cooperate, or that the prosecution is trying to squeeze him in order to cooperate, and once this trial begins, any chance of cooperating all but goes out the window,” Goldman said.
Both Sandick and Goldman agreed, however, that Manafort has little chance of acquittal in this case.”
If that’s true then Manafort is making a very big mistake, and even if Sandick is right-after all, couldn’t he apply for a reduction after being convicted?-that still would carry more jail time than if he’d cooperated before going to trial. So either way Manafort has already fallen on his own sword.
Meanwhile. another howler for Rudy Giuliani:
Trump and his allies have sought to downplay the trial, claiming that it has nothing to do with either the president or a conspiracy with Russia to win the election. Trump’s lawyer Rudy Giuliani told CNN on Monday that because Manafort was only with Trump “for four months,” he had no special insight that would incriminate the president.”
Four months as his campaign manager during the general election? As for Manafort he seems to be going all in on a strategy to obtain a pardon.
“After Manafort turned himself in last October, I reached out to former federal prosecutor Renato Mariotti and asked him what Mueller’s aggressive pursuit of Manafort could tell us about the Russia investigation.”
Yes, Mariotti also ran for Illinois Attorney General.
He doesn’t see a deal as likely now-if Manafort was going to flip it would have happened before going to trial.
So what exactly should we expect to happen at Manafort’s upcoming trial?
“To answer this question, I reached out to Mariotti again. I asked him if anything has changed since October, how strong the legal case is against Manafort, and why he thinks Trump’s former campaign manager only has two options now: prison or a presidential pardon.”
When Mariotti was first interviewed by Sean Illing, Mariotti had been pretty sure Manafort would flip and that certainly was his goal. But that never happened-even after having his home raided, being forced to wear an ankle bracelet and now being locked up in solitary for 23 hours a day. Now, Mariotti sees the prospects of cooperation as unlikely. For Manafort to flip at the last minute isn’t a good strategy according to Mariotti but ‘criminals sometimes do stupid things’ and Manafort doesn’t seem all that savvy.
So is he surprised Manafort didn’t flip?
Renato Mariotti
Mueller has done everything he could to put maximum pressure on Manafort. The man is facing charges in two different jurisdictions, a variety of federal charges carrying very substantial penalties, but for whatever reason, he has decided not to plead guilty, not to flip.
My speculation would be that’s because he’s hoping for a pardon or expecting a pardon, and if you’re expecting a pardon at the end, there’s no real downside in going to trial, as long as you feel confident you’ll get a pardon eventually.
Going to trial in that case could only be helpful because there’s always a chance that you get lucky and win. And beyond that, even if Manafort doesn’t win, he still gets witnesses on the record, and that could help him with any possible state prosecutions down the road.
Sean Illing
“There was a New York Times report earlier this year that said Trump’s then-lawyer, John Dowd, floated the possibility of a pardon to Manafort and onetime Trump National Security Adviser Michael Flynn’s lawyer. Perhaps that’s why Manafort believes a pardon is likely.”
Renato Mariotti
“That’s entirely possible, maybe even likely. But we don’t know for sure. Manafort’s in a tough spot here. He’s facing almost certain conviction, given all the evidence against him, and the very high likelihood of years in prison. Given his age [69], that’s a grim outlook.”
“Even if he pleads guilty, that would only slightly reduce the sentence. He would still be facing serious prison time. So from his perspective, why not fight this thing and hope that you get a pardon on the back end if it doesn’t work out?”
Basically if Manafort was going to flip-or plead guilty; Mariotti points out the two are different-he’d have done it already-and he should have done it already, for it to help him in any meaningful way.
While as noted above in the Atlantic piece the word ‘Russia’ may not come up in the Manafort case it’s important politically in demonstrating progress in the case. Mueller’s likelihood of success is very high. Pace Mariott, the case against Manafort has preceded very quickly-which, again, is necessary for political purposes as well. A major reason it moved so fast is Mueller had a head start-the Manafort case actually begun in the DOJ.
Sean Illing
“Manafort doesn’t seem to have much of a defense here. He’s being charged with crimes like failing to report certain bank accounts and not registering as a foreign agent for which there is clear, documented evidence. How do you fight that in court?”
Renato Mariotti
“Right — that’s something we should highlight. Some of these crimes are very straightforward, and we know that because the indictment was leaked. What’s striking to me, as a prosecutor, is that these are precisely the sort of charges prosecutors love.”
“Indeed, the only ‘defense’ has been political-Trump and his friends call it a ‘witch hunt’ because the charges in this court are not related to Russian collusion.”
Sean Illing
“At this point, it seems safe to assume that Mueller gave Manafort an opportunity to flip in order to help him prosecute the Russia case, but since Manafort has declined to do so, he’s very likely looking at significant jail time no matter what happens.”
Renato Mariotti
“I think that’s right. Realistically, I would be surprised if the prosecutors were still reaching out to Manafort’s team regarding flipping or pleading guilty — that window has likely closed. Manafort, meanwhile, has embarked on a very aggressive strategy to challenge Mueller’s authority and to make a number of aggressive motions. But that strategy has completely failed.”
“His problem now is that he’s facing many criminal charges in two different jurisdictions. The government only needs to get a conviction on one of those charges to obtain a very significant prison sentence, because the judge can take into account all of Mr. Manafort’s activity if he’s convicted on any charge.”
“As a practical matter, then, any guilty verdict is a win for the government. Manafort essentially would have to win on every count to keep himself out of prison. The chances of that happening are next to impossible, absent a major series of blunders by the government.”
So based on this analysis, it’s prison or a pardon for Manafort. As noted above the only ‘defense’ of his actions has been political. Sure, he’s guilty of tax evasion and bank fraud but they wouldn’t charge him for these very serious crimes if there wasn’t a ‘witch hunt’ to take down Trump.
Trump honestly believes himself to be a political genius, to having exceptional political instincts. It’s his one true article of faith. This is why he’s suddenly done a 180 and is willing to meet with Iran without preconditions-he has-quite mistakenly-convinced himself what he did with North Korea was a great success and is trying to replicate it here with Iran.
But after seeing him decry Manafort’s plight by comparing him to Al Capone it makes you want to quote Hank Hill: let me put this a way even a genius can understand, you are not a genius.
One lender’s employee told FBI agents she thought it was strange that her firm was willing to loan Manafort $3.5 million given his debts and past default. He got a $16 million loan only because the bank’s chairman, Steve Calk, wanted a job with Trump, according to the special counsel.
Here’s a money quote from the illegitimate ‘President’ himself: Al Capone got a raw deal.
“With Paul Manafort, who really is a nice man, you look at what’s going on, it’s like Al Capone,” the president said in a recent Fox News interview, comparing the prosecution strategy to the one used to take down the murderous gangster on tax evasion charges.
“It’s just a sad thing,” he added.
So now he’s normalizing Al Capone too. But then again, his SJC nominee, Brett Kavanaugh, thinks Nixon got a raw deal so…