6

UPDATE:

A lot of conversations about this question get things mangled-impeachment can be done by the Dem House by simple majority. The Senate if it votes to convict removes him from office. I’ve made my case in this book that Trump must be impeached if that’s where the facts lead. In Chapter A I looked at analysis by Elizabeth Holtzman where she calls out the lazy conventional wisdom that because the GOP has been lockstep with Trump until now they will simply never convict him. My own theory is it’s all about Trump’s approval rating-if in the next 1 to 2 years it’s closer to 22% than its current 42% then maybe the GOP Senate will convict after all-McConnell would let the GOP 2020 candidates in blue/purple districts do the dirty work and the red State GOPers could abstain.”

UPDATE 2.0:

Trump was kind enough to being the process of tanking his poll numbers himself with that absurd shutdown that was basically him continually and repeatedly kicking the ball in his own goal-the more others laughed the more determined he became to do it again.

Recently Tim O’Brien-one of the few who have  seen ‘President Trump’s’ tax returns had a great name for him: Icarus. 

The breadth of investigations is so sweeping — as many on social media and reporters with the Washington Post, the Associated Press, and Bloomberg News have already noted — that few of the worlds Trump inhabits have escaped prosecutors’ attention. The Trump Organization, the Trump Foundation, the Trump family, the Trump campaign, the Trump transition, the Trump inauguration, and the Trump White House are all being probed for wrongdoing.

The Trump team’s possible collusion with Russia to sabotage and tilt the 2016 election, a probe spearheaded by Special Counsel Robert Mueller, pulls many strands of the investigations together. Trumplandia’s intersection with Russia may have started with business propositions more than a decade ago (such as the Trump SoHo hotel and condominium), and included more recent undertakings like a project in Moscow, before evolving into a political partnership during the 2016 campaign after Trump’s presidential prospects brightened.

But there are many other threads, some related to Russia and some not, that investigators are pulling on. The Trump inauguration raised $107 million, and $40 million of that amount remains unaccounted for; Ivanka Trump, according to a joint report from ProPublica and WNYC, refereed payments to Trump’s Washington hotel during the inauguration. The Wall Street Journal said last week that federal investigators are examining whether inauguration donors gave money in exchange for policy favors.

Michael Cohen, a former Trump attorney, has told prosecutors that Trump directed him to violate campaign finance laws by paying hush-money to two alleged paramours during the 2016 campaign to keep Trump’s presidential bid alive. David Pecker, publisher of the National Enquirer, said he helped bury stories about Trump’s affairs for the same reason. New York law enforcement officials are probing how Trump managed his charitable foundation, and they and federal law enforcement officials have also corralled the president’s longtime accountant and chief financial officer, Allen Weisselberg, for questioning.

“Let me point out that there are a lot of unanswered ethical, legal and factual questions but clearly this was not a good week for President Trump, nor for his campaign organization and these allegations are concerning,” said Senator Susan Collins, a Republican, in an interview Sunday with CNN’s Jake Tapper. “But we need to wait until we have the entire picture. And that’s why it’s so critical that the special counsel be allowed to complete his investigation unimpeded so that we can have the full picture.”

“The reality, however, is that Trump is having much more than a bad week. Mueller’s investigation, which Trump routinely pillories as a “witch hunt,” may end up being narrowly drawn around the 2016 campaign, collusion and obstruction of justice — and conclude relatively soon. On the other hand, investigations in New York, including the state attorney general’s probe of Trump’s charity and finances and the Manhattan U.S. attorney’s examination of Cohen’s dealings with the president, could wind up reaching back years into Trump’s business history — well beyond some of the events that have come to light in the last week — and proceed for much longer than the Mueller probe.”

“If that’s the course the various investigations follow, then Trump may emerge as a brazen grifter who, by aspiring to the White House like a wizened, soiled version of Icarus, flew beyond the boundaries of his own luck and abilities and delivered his business, children and well-being into the hands of prosecutors.”

But what do Trump’s-aka Icarus’- GOP co-conspirators really think of him-when they are in private? Here is Angry WH Staffer’s take based on his/her own’s deep connections:

Hey guys, just wanted to take the time to answer a few questions from last night’s AMA that needed longer responses. Keep ’em coming. Not like I have anything better to do than work for no pay, anyway. 😉

“Do you see a shifting away from Trump in the GOP? Can they not see the damage he is doing? Do you have insight into what they are saying behind closed doors?”

“This is a great question, and a topic that irritates me greatly. Almost without exception, the people who defend Trump in public slander him mercilessly behind closed-doors. It’s hypocrisy on a scale that you probably won’t find many places outside of DC. They all know he’s an idiot. They all know he’s bad for the GOP brand (and the country). There really aren’t many people in Congress who actually like Trump, outside of Meadows, Gaetz, and a couple of outliers. It’s a not-so-well kept secret that McConnell and Murdoch met to discuss their exit strategy. I would have expected to see more public deployment of it already, but I don’t think it will be long; the shutdown is not playing well for the GOP with pollsters. It’s almost like blaming the Democrats for a shutdown when you control the entire government was a bad idea. Weird, huh?”

Indeed, there was some talk of this among journos on  Twitter in the immediate aftermath of Nov 6’s Blue Tsunami.

https://twitter.com/algernonradish/status/1062010736694706176

1/ Two nights ago, Rupert Murdoch called on Mitch McConnell, after hours. Since then, two Fox News-related Twitter accounts have not tweeted.

— Greg Olear (@gregolear) November 11, 2018

And indeed, the Fox News account hasn’t tweeted anything since November 8. 

Here is Angry WH Staffer’s impeachment prediction:

“Many of you have asked me which Senators I think will defect and vote for conviction after the House impeaches. Here’s a list of my best guesses with the information available at this time:”

“Couple of notes before we start: this exercise assumes a few things:”

He/she points out that to convict Trump you need 20 GOP Senators to vote with Democrats.

1. all Democrats will vote to convict.”

2. it will happen in the next (116th) Congress that starts on January 3rd, 2019, so I have not listed any retiring members here.”

3. I am also listing both independents as YES votes, but that seems to be all but guaranteed. So we need 20 R’s to vote for impeachment.”

“I still fully believe that as information continues to come out (we haven’t even gotten to the really good stuff yet), we will see a mass-exodus from Trump in an attempt to save 2020. Far too little, way too late, but I expect for it to happen. I don’t think Trump will actually be removed from Office via impeachment, but I do believe the public whip counts will scare the crap out of him and he’ll end up resigning. At least if he resigns, he can do it on his own terms (ish) and spin it the way he wants… until he ends up in prison.”

UPDATE: In Chapter A I looked at Yuri Applebaum’s argument for impeachment and point he highlighted was that impeachment is a process not a destination where all that matters is throwing the President-or in this case ‘President-out of office. What the argument that you shouldn’t impeach unless your virtually certain of conviction is that the impeachment inquiry-it’s an inquiry on wether or not to impeach-will build the case for and increase support of conviction and removal. For our purposes you can argue that at this point about 40% to 50% depending on the poll already support impeaching ‘President Trump’-even 40% is much higher than ever supported impeaching Bill Clinton. From what Dem leaders like Jerrold Nadler and Nancy Pelosi have said they want it more in the 70% range. The impeachment inquiry itself will do a lot of the work of getting us there.

Remember in 1974 only 15 GOP Senators-at most were still with Nixon.

Angry then gives us the GOP Senators he believes will vote to convict:

So Little Marco finally gets some Big Revenge against Trump.

We have already begun to to see the GOP back off from Trump on Khashoggi/Syria in particular.

UPDATE: Just yesterday McConnell’s Senate passed a resolution condemning Trump’s announcement of removing troops from Syria and Afghanistan. 

Only two days now until the real fun begins.

UPDATE: Mitt Romney’s blistering editorial about Trump before he was even sworn into the Senate got a good deal of notice though, understandably, many of us are very cynical about anyone from the Grand Ole Party ever doing the right thing if they don’t see it as in their partisan interest. Angry WH Staffer acknowledges that this cynicism is justified but nevertheless makes the case for why Romney may be different-ie, he won’t flake out pun intended.

“Guys, I get it. I really do. At this point, it’s far easier to assume the furrowed-brows, deep concern, righteous Tweets, and even indignant Senate floor speeches are all just convenient political theater, followed by lining up like good soldiers and doing whatever POTUS wants. Why wouldn’t you feel that way? That’s exactly what we’ve all been shown by Jeff Flake and Susan Collins for the last two years, why would this “I believe 47% of Americans are entitled,” ultra-rich Mormon from Utah with a binder full of a women and a dog on top of his car be any different? I get it. I’m not asking you to become Mitt Romney’s biggest fan, but I am asking you to have a *little* faith; I firmly believe this *is* going to be different.

“Of all the current GOP Senators, Romney is perhaps the best-poised to lead the anti-Trump charge. Even as a junior Senator, his job-security is ironclad; he won 65% of the vote in his Senate election in Utah, compared to the 45.9% Trump carried the state with in 2016. Romney is also 71 years old; he will be 77 at the end of his Senate term, so unless he is the primary option in 2020, he won’t have any Presidential aspirations. It’s also worth pointing out that Romney was more popular in a presidential election than Trump; Romney won 47.2% of the national vote against Obama in 2012. Donald Trump won 46.1% of the national vote against Hillary Clinton. This was before the Trump Russia scandal was public knowledge and prior to Trump’s approval rating hovering somewhere just above the toilet.

If I’m correct about Romney — and I think I am — he won’t be leading the GOP anywhere they don’t already want to go. I’ve said since the midterms that the GOP is souring on Trump. Almost to a man, his most ardent defenders slander him mercilessly behind closed doors. They don’t want to be known as the party of Trump, and Romney gives them a well-respected, establishment figure to rally behind. Politically, this really doesn’t matter to me, aside from getting rid of Trump faster. I’m done with the GOP, at least for the foreseeable future. The way they sold their souls for some SCOTUS picks and normalized Trump for two years is far too much for me to forgive anytime soon.

I certainly agree with Angry here:

“I’ve said it before, but it’s important to say again: political differences shouldn’t make any of us enemies. Remember, before I joined Twitter, I was a long-time just-right-of center-Republican who realized the GOP was leaving me behind. I believe most of you consider me an ally; it shouldn’t be any different for the never-Trumpers or the first ones to publicly split from Trump and/or the official party line. When every vote matters, it’s unwise to shun potential allies. This doesn’t mean absolve them of all their sins, but we should all find a way to work together where we can. I honestly look forward to a time when we can again argue over the nuances of individual or party politics, but can we put that aside for now and save our country first?

I totally disagree with those leftists who try to boil everything down to an ideological beauty contest-all that matters is who’s the most vs the least leftist. There are lots of reasons to oppose Trump beyond pure ideology-which is why those who argue we shouldn’t impeach Trump because Pence is more conservative are way off base-presuming that Pence any more conservative than Trump-Trump’s been pretty conservative. He still benefits from this illusion I took on in Chapter A, that he’s a ‘different type of Republican’ or ‘a Democrat most of his life.’ If this were so, do you think the GOP Congress would be so beholden to him?

UPDATE: As Angry WH Staffer points out, Trump at this point after having a worse midterm than after Nixon resigned in 1974 has outlived any usefulness for the GOP-what’s the incentive to keeping him around?